Trade-war between the USA and China deeply impacted agribusinesses as all of the ABCD recorded a loss during the fourth quarter of 2018. For instance, AMD net income dropped by $315 millions, Bunge has suffered a $125 millions mark-to-market loss, Cargill reported a 20% fiscal profit drop and Louis Dreyfus sustained a $65 millions mark-to-market loss on oilseeds hedging.

These impressive loss are mostly due to tariffs imposed on each other by the rival nations. China, in response, turned to Brazil for its soybean and grain traders, ABCD’s, jumped at the chance to ship them from South America, resulting in a price increase. However, as tensions eased, price for Brazilian soy returned to its normal state and most trading companies lost money on their hedging operations.

For the current year, the US Department of Agriculture forecast an increase in unsold crop from 13.5 millions tons, stocked, by the end of 2018, to 25 millions tons. This huge setback in sale will mostly impact farmers as Financial Times estimates the 2018 loss to almost 8 billions dollars.

Price movement

(Prices expressed in USD$ per bushel)

Soybean prices keep falling as traders wait for improvements in US / China trade war. March futures fell 11.5 cents to move back, closing at 8.89 dollars. Preliminary estimates of volume were 87,770 contracts, down 25% from the final figure of 117,490 set earlier this week.

Bids for soybeans remained virtually unchanged on Wednesday, but rose 2 cents in an Illinois river terminal and 3 cents less at an Iowa processor today.

Poor road conditions resulted in the closure of Brazil’s main agricultural transportation route, BR-163, until Friday, which allowed repairs to be made. The country is transporting millions of bushels of corn and soybeans on the BR-163, where it is finally loaded onto ships in its northern ports. It only resulted in minor shipping delays as the market was already shifting back to US soy.

Despite all the tensions on the soybeans market, some smaller actors like Egypt took advantage of the situation, placing several 42,000 metric tons orders of Soyoil in an international tender March 6, for arrival in late April.

Recommendation for the future

China and USA are close to sign a trade deal this month however that does not mean the trade war ends. Trump warned that he can still walk out on China like he did with North Korea.

However, based on the forward curve and other information presented, we suggest to go long on the futures as we deem the chinese demand on the verge of increasing. Plus, we are confident that large trading companies will not make the same mistakes as they once did in the last quarter of 2018, if the trade war starts over.

Sources

‘ADM Fourth-Quarter Profit Misses as U.S.-China Trade War Stings,…’ Reuters, 5 February 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-archer-daniels-results-idUSKCN1PU19R.
‘China Will Buy More U.S. Soy in “Good News” for Trade Talks’, 22 February 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-22/china-will-buy-more-u-s-soybeans-in-good-news-for-trade-talks.
GmbH, finanzen net. ‘25 Million Tonnes of US Soybeans Will Go Unsold This Year as a Direct Consequence of the Trade War with China | Markets Insider’. markets.businessinsider.com. Accessed 7 March 2019. https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-25-million-tonnes-of-us-soybeans-to-go-unsold-2019-2.
———. ‘Soybeans PRICE Today | Soybeans Spot Price Chart | Live Price of Soybeans per Ounce | Markets Insider’. markets.businessinsider.com. Accessed 7 March 2019. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/soybeans-price.
‘Soybean Outlook – Soybean Market Defies Logic’. Farm Progress, 15 August 2016. https://www.farmprogress.com/story-weekly-soybean-review-0-30767.
‘U.S.-China Trade War Rattles Agribusinesses, Especially Bunge’. Reuters, 20 February 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-agribusiness-idUSKCN1Q92UQ.

December 13, 2018December 13, 2018

Nigerian market struggles with surplus (WAC #4)

Price Mouvement Recap

Due to the pressure from Donald Trump to reduce the price of crude, Brent as wellas West African Qua Iboe and Nemba prices were dropping down till the end ofNovember to less than $60 a barrel.

However, in the beginning of December, oil prices increased more than 2%. Saudi Arabia, Russia andother producers in OPEC decided to counterattack by cutting output in order to “drain” global fuel inventories and support the market. Consequently, Brent crude rose 2,9% to $61,70 a barrel.

Markets reacted well (hence the slight increase in prices early December) following the annoucement of OPEC. However, markets are still over supplied and therefore prices return to normal levels

Supply & Demand

Once again, high freight rates and weak Asian refining margins “kept buyers at bay” in West African market, which created a situation of unsold cargoes. Globaldemand growth of crude oil has weakened, especially from China, where refinershave a surplus of oil in storage.

“The Angolan market, which tends to be dominated by Chinese refiners, has beenslow to move. Traders said the Angolan market still has around 17 cargoes ofunsold January cargoes available, out of a total of 43 in the final loadingprogramme.” (reuters)

“The Nigerian market has suffered the most from freight rates and it’s heavily over supplied, to the tune of around 30 cargoes for December and early January,which traders said was “worrying” at this point in the supply cycle, with just a little over two weeks to go until the February loading programmes emerge.” (reuters)

Forward Curves

There is no significant change concerning the forward curves. It is still in a contangosituation and still better to store crude. Nothing has changed since the last bulletin.For September and October 2019 we can notice a slight decrease of the futureprice surely due to the output cut from the OPEC countries.

OPEC and selected non-OPEC countries agreed last week to cut their output by1.2 million barrels per day during the first six months of 2019. This 1,2millions bpdcut is based on the production of October 2018.

Most of the cuts will come from Saudi Arabia, with smaller contributions likely tocome from Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Oman.

Other OPEC and non-OPEC countries are unlikely to reduce their output voluntarily by any significant amount so their participation in the agreement is mostly symbolic.

Sources

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-prices-climb-on-opec-led-cuts-but-off-session-highsidUSKBN1O603M

https://af.reuters.com/article/angolaNews/idAFL8N1Y95GV

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1070328136150200320

https://af.reuters.com/article/angolaNews/idAFL8N1YC3T0

https://af.reuters.com/article/angolaNews/idAFL8N1YA4O5

https://af.reuters.com/article/angolaNews/idAFL8N1Y84BXE

December 13, 2018December 13, 2018

OPEC+ found a deal ; Russia is taking it slowly ; uncertainty remains high

Russian crude oil – Weekly bulletin #4

Price movement

Oil prices were down on 4th December, as OPEC failed to give the market a clear signal regarding production cut, and whether Russia would be on board as well, should one be implemented.
Moreover, the USA as well are not helping the situation. Trump tweets stating that “the World doesn’t not want or need higher oil prices” and claiming America’s energy independence since, for the first time in 75 years, USA has become a net exporter of oil. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a huge crude oil inventory draw 10.18 million barrels for the week ending December 7, compared to analyst expectations that we would see a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.990 million barrels.

Qatar announcement of departure from the OPEC cartel, stating that its interest were no longer aligned with the other Persian gulf countries, probably had a significant impact on the Dubai benchmark which recorded a five dollars (-8%) drop in a day.
However, on December 7th, OPEC and OPEC+ managed to find an agreement on oil production cut – approximately 800,000 bbl/day for OPEC and 400,000 bbl/day for OPEC+. This announcement led to a small increase in most oil markets.

Supply and demand dynamic

The group of non-OPEC countries is expected to reduce production by 400,000 barrels a day, but Russia is to do its share only gradually over the next few months starting with initial cuts of 50,000 to 60,000 b/d, this is significant because Russia is the main player in the non-OPEC cohort. Therefore the cut may not be reached in due time.

Nonetheless, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday that Russia hoped to achieve its goal of reducing oil production by 228,000 b/d, or 2%, in line with the reduction agreement of OPEC production within four months.

Russia has pledged to gradually reduce production, as freezing winter temperatures make rapid reduction difficult. The group is scheduled to meet in April to review the progress of the transaction.
Nearly a week after the OPEC+ agreement, confidence in the effectiveness of the deal is already becoming fragile.

Reccomendation for the future

Surplus supply could be further eliminated by unforeseen interruptions. Libya has just lost 400,000 bpd due to invading militias, according to the National Oil Corp. Venezuela and Iran are also expected to continue to lose production as they are still under US sanctions and meanwhile Nigeria remains under geopolitical risk. Unlikely events that could quickly erase any excess supply.

However, the oil market is not convinced that the OPEC+ cuts will be enough to raise oil prices significantly, despite the initial euphoria surrounding the Vienna agreement. There are also some other factors that could make the market saturated. Rips in the global economy are growing, the demand leads to some signs of tensions and the supply is still rising as US continue producing and Qatar is to be independent.

Despite an hectic past couple weeks, future curves show a slight contango and we are recommending investing long for the next six months.

Sources :
‘Brent Futures Curve’. ERCE. Accessed 11 December 2018. https://www.erce.energy/graph/brent-futures-curve.
‘Crude Oil Futures Trade Higher on API Data, OPEC Cuts | S&P Global Platts’. Accessed 13 December 2018. https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/121218-crude-oil-futures-trade-higher-on-api-data-opec-cuts.
‘Oil Prices Head Higher After API Reports Huge Crude Draw’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 11 December 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Head-Higher-After-API-Reports-Huge-Crude-Draw.html.
‘Opinion | Why Is Qatar Leaving OPEC? – The New York Times’. Accessed 10 December 2018. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/10/opinion/qatar-leaving-opec-saudi-arabia-blockade-failure.html.
‘President Trump Throws Hail Mary Tweet On Eve Of OPEC Meet’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 13 December 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/President-Trump-Throws-Hail-Mary-Tweet-On-Eve-Of-OPEC-Meet.html.
‘Russia Will Cut Oil Production By 60,000 Bpd In January’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 13 December 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Will-Cut-Oil-Production-By-60000-Bpd-In-January.html.
‘Russia’s Oil Production Cuts To Take Months To Implement’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 13 December 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Production-Cuts-To-Take-Months-To-Implement.html.
‘Russia’s Oil Production Dips As Possible Production Cuts Near’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 13 December 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russias-Oil-Production-Dips-As-Possible-Production-Cuts-Near.html.
‘Urals-Brent Price Difference’. Neste worldwide, 19 February 2015. https://www.neste.com/corporate-info/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference-0.
‘Why The OPEC+ Deal Won’t Cut It’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 13 December 2018. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-The-OPEC-Deal-Wont-Cut-It.html.

November 29, 2018

Oil prices slump : USA exporting more, Russia can go lower and a potential OPEC output cut to come

Russian crude oil – Weekly bulletin #3

Price movement

As recently as the beginning of October, Brent’s barrel was trading at around $ 87 per barrel, while the forecast was 100$. Since then, the commodity has suffered a series of unprecedented losses, affected by both an overabundance of supply and a decline in demand. Oil is now estimated at nearly half of what it was two months ago, after recording its biggest drop in a day for the past three years.

The anticipated cut in supplies precipitated by US sanctions on Iranian oil has not materialized, thanks to the unexpected administration of the Trump government which granted exemptions to eight countries, including major importers, China and India. Most disturbing, this abundance of supply could account for only about 15% of the current price decline, the rest being caused by depressed demand linked to a sluggish economy.

Crude oil prices fell further today after the Energy Information Administration announced crude oil inventories for the week leading up to Nov. 23 adding 3.6 million barrels and 3.453 million barrels for the current week. This is comparable to a production of 4.9 million barrels a week earlier.

Supply and demand dynamic
Crude oil prices lost more than 1 USD/bbl in Wednesday night trade after US crude inventories rose more than expected, for the week ended Nov. 23. However, lower gasoline inventories in the United States and higher crude oil exports to the United States provided bullish support in an otherwise bearish report from the Energy Information Administration.

US crude exports jumped from 473,000 bpd to 2.44 million bpd last week, after three consecutive declines while US gasoline inventories fell 764,000 barrels around 224,55 million barrels still stored revealed the EIA data. This was contrary to analysts’ expectations regarding a construction of 141,000 barrels.

The recent fall of the market to about $60/b did not bother Russia because its budget expenditure side is based on a price of 40$ per barrel, said Putin in Moscow. Although he declared himself willing to cooperate with OPEC “if necessary”, Russia remains in a wait and see position.

Russia’s crude oil exports to India are expected to increase in the near future and could become more attractive when the United States waiver for the purchase of Iranian crude oil expires, said Vice President of the Essar Group on Wednesday, Ravi Ruia.

In October, before the lifting of sanctions was approved, Nayara’s president, B. Anand, told S&P Global Platts that the company would request additional purchases of crude oil from Iraq, Saudi Arabia , Mexico and Brazil, as well as the merger of the Urals with Russia dry.

Recommendation for the future

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said in Abuja, the Nigerian capital, that the OPEC / non-OPEC coalition must make a “collective decision” to balance the oil market and stabilize prices. This could include production cuts, although he was careful to point out that no proposal had yet been finalized. The coalition is preparing a meeting in Vienna on the 6 of december.

Looking at the latest forward curve, we can see a slight contango foreseen by the market and therefore, we still recommend to be long on russian crude.

Sources :
‘China’s Russian Oil Imports Hit Record High, Iran Intake Slumps’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 28 November 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Russian-Oil-Imports-Hit-Record-High-Iran-Intake-Slumps.html.
‘Oil Falls On Crude Inventory Build’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 29 November 2018. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Falls-On-Crude-Inventory-Build.html.
‘Russia Isn’t Interested In Joining New OPEC-Led Oil Output Cuts’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 29 November 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Isnt-Interested-In-Joining-New-OPEC-led-Oil-Output-Cuts.html.
‘Saudi Arabia To Raise Oil Shipments To China’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 29 November 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-To-Raise-Oil-Shipments-To-China.html.
‘Saudis Boosted Oil Exports, Pumped At Record Level In Early November’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 27 November 2018. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudis-Boosted-Oil-Exports-Pumped-At-Record-Level-In-Early-November.html.
‘The Biggest Losers Of The Current Oil Price Slump’. OilPrice.com. Accessed 29 November 2018. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Biggest-Losers-Of-The-Current-Oil-Price-Slump.html.
‘Urals-Brent Price Difference’. Neste worldwide, 19 February 2015. https://www.neste.com/corporate-info/investors/market-data/urals-brent-price-difference-0.

November 29, 2018November 29, 2018

West African Crude Bulletin n°3

Ciao China,
Welcome South Korea and India!

PRICE MOVEMENT RECAP

Qua Iboe (Nigeria) – Light & sweet crude (Gravity 37.6 / Sulfur 0.10 %)

Nemba (Angola) – Light & sweet crude (Gravity 38.7 / Sulfur 0.19 %)

Price of Brent crude continues to plunge greatly and has fallen to its lowest point this year. It slumped as low as $59.26 a barrel last Friday (the 23th of November). In early October, the price per barrel was at $86, and then we can notice that this plunge is more than 30%.

As a result, OPEC will react as there is an oversupply of crude. Meaning that they will take initiatives by surely cutting the supply in order to regulate the market (stabilize prices). This would imply a rebound in prices in 2019.

SUPPLY & DEMAND

China’s Importation of WAF crude oil will be cut in November due to the higher cost of shipments, while South Korean imports from West Africa will increase because of the US sanctions againstIran. In fact, Iranian exports are falling, pushing Asian refiners to look out for oil from much more further with longer journey times, pushing up shipping costs.

“Shipping rates for carrying West African oil on a very large crude carrier (VLCC) to China hit a nine-month high in October of more than $50 000 a day.” (Reuters)

“West African loadings to Asia will fall to about 2.33 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, equivalent to 70% of total exports from Angola, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Ghana and Equatorial Guinea. This compares to October’s 2.52 million bpd, or 75% of total regional exports.” (Reuters)

Consequently, the demand from Asian refiners for Nigerian and Angolan crude dropped down during the October and November, due to the higher shipping costs, which made the trip unprofitable.

Let’s have a look on West African exports to major Asian buyers:

Regarding tothis table, we can identify that China will import about 1.33 million bpd of mostly Angolan crude in November, comparing to October’s record of 1.935 million bpd, while South Korea will take about 167,000 bpd of WAF crude. India’s refiners will take 567,000 bpd of WAF crude in November, up from 452,000 bpd in October. Finally Taïwan has also increased its number of cargoes by taking about 133,000 bpd in November, while only 32,000 bpd were taken in October.

“South Korea has till now typically taken only occasional West African cargoes, because it has tended to rely more heavily on Middle East or North Sea suppliers. Nevertheless it has now said it would cut Iranian purchases because of US sanctions on Iran and has sought out other suppliers, starting with a cargo of Congolese Djeno that loaded this month.” (Reuters)

Glencore, Shell, Norway’s Equinor and Chevron, among others will supply the Indian market with a combination of Nigerian and Angolan grades.

BRENT FUTURES CURVE

When we compare the forward curve from two weeks ago to the one from this week, we can say that it is still a contango situation and hence it is still better to store the crude since carrying costs are supported by a higher price.

Only prices $ per barrel have been adapted but did not impact the forward curve. As the overall situation is the same from two weeks ago, in the sense that prices continues to plummet, there is no significant changes concerning this last bulletin to the previous one.

Sources:

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts

https://www.reuters.com/article/oil-westafrica-exports/china-to-cut-w-african-oil-imports-in-november-s-korea-imports-surge-idUSL8N1XO5NI

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/23/oil-price-falls-brent-crude-cost-barrel-oversupply-concerns

November 22, 2018November 23, 2018

Copper Weekly Bulletin – N°2

G20 as the last hope for trade war resolution and global economic growth

The copper three-month future price rose for the fifth straight session on Monday reaching $6,259 a tonne and having gained 2.5 percent since last week. This was due to the prospect of a resolution to the US-China trade war, with President Trump announcing that China was willing to take steps to resolve the issue.

However, the hope of a resolution fell short at the APEC summit last weekend, where for the first time, US and China fail to agree on a communique. Divisions were evident at the summit and Vice President Mike Pence even threatened China that they will double the tariffs if they do not accept US demands. Therefore, the prices fell down to $6,240 on Tuesday and to $6,239 on Wednesday. It dropped again on Thursday to $6,217 following another clash between the two world’s biggest economies at a WTO meeting on Wednesday, however the price is supported by a weakening dollar therefore making it cheaper to buy dollar-backed commodities

In general, the price of copper as well as the other metals traded in a narrow range the whole week, but the price outlook could improve if the sigh of a potential resolution in the trade conflict rise with the G20 summit at the end of the month.

Since last bulletin, the premium price for cash over 3-month dropped from $31 to $18.50 on Friday, and it rose again to $21.50 which still points toward tight market.

Negative sentiment of the market has a huge impact on the copper price.

Strengthening supply

According to mining.com, the supply is quite strong at the moment and is expected to be even stronger thanks to a 3% increase expectation of Chile. This 3% increase expectation is due to an increase of 54,100 tonnes in the first three quarters of 2018, a 13% year-to-date growth over the same period of 2017. It makes experts confident that Chile is going to continue with the current pattern. As a reminder, Chile is the biggest world’s exporter and account alone for more than 30% of total world’s supply.

Moreover, it appears that this trend is not only happening in Chile but also in other countries such as Zambia for example. According to Kitco, Zambia has currently done 10% better than last year during the same period. It is thanks to the biggest mining companies improving machines to extract copper.

As the global supply of copper is strengthen, there price of copper is supposed to decrease in a near future.

COPPER SUPPLY: Headline inventories of copper in LME-registered warehouses MCUSTX-TOTAL fell by 9,400 tonnes to 151,625 tonnes, nearing last month’s 10-year low of 136,675. tonnes.

Since two weeks ago, the level of the open tonnage LME copper stock (tradable warrant) remain pretty stable.

Such a stability means that for the moment, copper supply and demand meet pretty well.

Backwardation in the future

The forward curve is in backwardation, as we can see on the table below, the current cash price was increasing until a few days ago (12.11.18 – 20.11.18) before decreasing these last two days. The reason of this backwardation is still due to the negative sentiment toward the slowing chinese economic growth as well as the trade war. People prefer to trade to go short and sell at the cash price rather than at the future price which is the reason why the LME still has a premium of $21.50 cash over the three-month.

Data valid for 21 november 2018

Source:

https://www.kitco.com/news/2018-11-21/Zambia-apos-s-copper-output-up-10-4-year-year-in-September.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/global-metals/metals-copper-edges-higher-ahead-of-g20-summit-idUSL4N1XU3ZK

http://www.infomine.com/investment/warehouse-levels/copper/1-month/

http://www.mining.com/copper-output-spike-worlds-top-producer-chile/

November 16, 2018November 16, 2018

Winter is coming (iron ore #2)

Movement of the 62%, Fe fines iron ore Price

At the begging of the month of November the price was at 73$/Mt and started to increase till the 9th November, since than the prices is decreasing till today at the price of 74.81$/Mt

The causes:

This is due to the arrival of the winter and to the regulation from the local government of Hebei in China. Hebei is the largest steel production province.

The local government of Hebei announced an “orange” alert for smog in the air forcing the mills of steel to reduce their production until 16 November.

Steelmakers want to maximize their output of steel before winter; therefore, they need a high quality of iron ore in order to obtain the higher margin as possible. That is why the prices went up.

Since the prices of steel is decreasing, in consequence the margin is lower for the Chinese mills. Which push them to buy low grade of iron ore (58%Fe) in order to maintain their profit margin because low-grade iron ore reduce cost.

Since the announcement of “orange” alert, Chinese companies has halve their production, which decreased iron ore, 62%Fe demand.

This graph shows the basis evolution of iron ore from July 2018 to October 2018.

From the middle of July until the beginning of August, the future price is higher than the spot price, which means it is a contango, there is enough supply and lower demand. It is a normal state of the market and the signal of it is that we should store.

Then the situation changes: the spot price is higher than the future price in August, so it is slip to a backwardation which means demand is greater than supply, the market is hot, people want to buy so we should sell and do not store.

Finally, from the beginning of September until October, we can observe that the situation of the market changes again into a contango state. There is more supply than demand and we should store the iron ore.

As the whole of Chinese steelmakers companies count for 74% of the iron ore global market share, if their demand in construction or transportation sector increase, the price of the iron ore will rise also.

Recommendation

We recommend going long because today the prices for future contract are decreasing until the end of 2019, show in the table below.

Sources:

Market Index. (2018). Iron Ore. [online] Available at: https://www.marketindex.com.au/iron-ore [Accessed 15 Nov. 2018].

Investing.com. (2018). Iron ore fines 62% Fe CFR Futures Historical Prices – Investing.com. [Online] Available at: https://www.investing.com/commodities/iron-ore-62-cfr-futures- historical-data [Accessed 15 Nov. 2018].

Argusmedia.com. (2018). China’s steel profit margins accelerate falls. [online] Available at: https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/1790676-chinas-steel-profit-margins-accelerate-falls [Accessed 15 Nov. 2018].

Scutt, D. (2018). Iron ore prices slump. [online] Business Insider Australia. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/iron-ore-prices-china-steel-demand-hebei-2018-11 [Accessed 15 Nov. 2018].

U.S. (2018). RPT-COLUMN-LME bets on new contracts to force steel industry…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… [online]

Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/steel-pricing-ahome/rpt-column-lme-bets-on- new-contracts-to-force-steel-industry-change-andy-home-idUSL8N1XH4OV [Accessed 15 Nov. 2018].

MB, F. (2018). Iron ore pricing explained | Metal Bulletin.com. [online] Metalbulletin.com. Available at: https://www.metalbulletin.com/Article/3811904/Iron-ore-pricing-explained.html [Accessed 15 Nov. 2018].

Foundation, T. (2018). China’s Hebei province issues orange alert for smog. [online] news.trust.org. Available at: http://news.trust.org//item/20181112011729-8eqc1/ [Accessed 15 Nov. 2018].

End of 2018 was disastrous for big trading houses, what about 2019 with the U.S. / China trade war ?

Trade news

Price movement

Recommendation for the future

Sources

Price Mouvement Recap

Supply & Demand

Forward Curves

Sources

Russian crude oil – Weekly bulletin #4

Price movement

Supply and demand dynamic

Reccomendation for the future

Ciao China, Welcome South Korea and India!

Ciao China,
Welcome South Korea and India!